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ODDS

1/1        Denzel Washington, Fences
27/20  Casey Affleck, Manchester By The Sea
25/1     Ryan Gosling, La La Land
66/1     Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
80/1     Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic

Full disclosure, I didn’t watch Captain Fantastic. It looks alright but I didn’t feel like devoting 2 hours on a granola activist movie just to judge the performance of someone who has no chance to win. Like none. I’m sure you’ll forgive me.

WHO SHOULD WIN – Denzel Washington

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I had Casey Affleck as a LOCK to run away with this category up until last week. I figured the Denzel talk was just because, you know, it’s Denzel. But pre-homeless Casey was just so damn good in Manchester that it felt like an insult not to give it to him. Well I finally watched Fences last week and that all changed. This was an incredible performance from top to bottom. Nothing made me happier than watching him be a slight drunk who threatens to beat his son, cheats on his wife, demand to drive a trash truck without having a license, and accidentally take advantage of his brother’s medical situation just because he can’t read what he’s signing. Yes I enjoyed every second of that.

WHO WILL WIN- Casey Affleck

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Gun to my head, I’m saying Casey. But its really just a coin flip between him and Denzel. My reasoning is this: Manchester by the Sea has 6 nominations and is one of the biggest “oscar” movies that everyone rushed out to see. In my opinion this is the only category it has a chance in. I certainly don’t want to take away from Casey’s performance, it was incredible. But I’ve made it clear I don’t think he was acting. I think he was just starting down his dark path of depression that led him to look as homeless-ish as he does now and it happened to work out great for the movie.

THE REST

Ryan Gosling needs to figure out how to be something other than Ryan Gosling in order for me to take him seriously. I love Gosling, we all do. But Actors should be more than their everyday self. Stop being the handsome witty guy with a chip on his shoulder. Do something different.

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Andrew Garfield sucks and I’ll never like him. He’ll always be the guy in The Social Network who managed to be the biggest and most useless nerd in a movie about nerds. His head is too narrow for his neck and for some reason he thinks making his hair even bigger somehow fixes is awkward appearance. I hope I’m not being too mean here.

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Viggo Mortensen. I didn’t watch your movie. You don’t get a gif here.